(I predict.) And I want to go on the record with it. Here’s my thinking, in roughly chronological order:

1. Apple/NeXT makes WebObjects for Objective-C, then ports it to Java because that’s where they (correctly) see server-side programming headed.
2. Apple/NeXT likewise builds an interface to Cocoa/AppKit from Java, and for Rhapsody writes System Preferences in Java to show how serious they are.
3. Apple’s JVM for PowerPCs is slow, so System Preferences is slow and makes people think that Mac OS X will suck. It is rewritten in Objective-C and is much faster.
4. (Mac OS X 10.0 is still pretty slow and sucky.)
5. WebObjects obtains moderate success but, being expensive, is ignored by the vast majority of Java Web programmers (who are now clogging every highway in New Jersey).
6. Tapestry is inspired by WebObjects, and is free.
7. Ruby on Rails happens. Ruby programmers love Macs and aren’t afraid to screencast them all over the place.
8. Wicket is inspired by Tapestry, is even more clever, and is also free.
9. Apple begins to include the Ruby interpreter in OS X.
10. Intel processors begin to ship on Macintosh computers and the JVM performs well on them finally, but at this point Mac users have made up their minds to hate Java forever.
11. WebObjects is freed / aborted / whatever.
12. Apple discontinues extension of the derelict Java to Cocoa bridge.
13. Apple announces RubyCocoa inclusion in Leopard, a bridge from Ruby to Cocoa.
14. I mean, come on.

Knowing that people inside Apple appreciate Web component frameworks (they invented them) I have a hard time believing Apple is peachy with Rails’ unenlightened ActionController. Yes, I know that it too will be packaged in Leopard. Hell, everything’s in Leopard (even Java!), so perhaps I’m reading too much into RubyCocoa’s inclusion.

But if we imagine that Apple decided to start a replacement for WebObjects about 16 months ago, what platform would they pick? Obviously not Java (even before Jobs’s iPhone comments). And if it were to be Objective-C, they’d just double-back on the WebObjects line instead of abandoning it. No, it’s got to be a ground-up rewrite in Ruby, which they could predict at that point as the next hot spot for server-side programming.

Or maybe they’re not writing any kind of Web framework at all? Right, because no one is using Gmail and they’re all using Mail.app. And because the Web is not the future and Apple has no need to stay on top of writing applications for it. They can just use Google’s Web toolkit, and they love Google’s dominance of the Internet so much they aren’t partnering with Yahoo Mail instead for the iPhone. And anyway Rails’ bastardized “MVC,” inspired by Sun’s famous Model 2, is the cat’s pajamas. Sure. Maybe that’s it.

Internet Archive, hit me up, ’cause I want proof of this in a year. Or three.